Predictions are hard, mainly because the future hasn't happened yet. Russia may use nukes, China might support Russia more openly, Ukraine may commit atrocities out of anger, weakening western support....there are many ways Ukraine can lose. But Russia's inability to defend its border, inexplicable Moscow victory day parade (only tank a single t-34), public disputes between its most vocal commanders and almost total failure to capture any territory in the last year all point to Russian weakness. Most likely scenario: a costly, drawn-out Ukrainian victory. But equally don't completely rule out a Russian collapse in 2023....nobody expected Russia 1917 or France 1940; a collapse is only unlikely till it eventually happens. Afterwards it will come to seem inevitable.
Thanks Rajan,
Predictions are hard, mainly because the future hasn't happened yet. Russia may use nukes, China might support Russia more openly, Ukraine may commit atrocities out of anger, weakening western support....there are many ways Ukraine can lose. But Russia's inability to defend its border, inexplicable Moscow victory day parade (only tank a single t-34), public disputes between its most vocal commanders and almost total failure to capture any territory in the last year all point to Russian weakness. Most likely scenario: a costly, drawn-out Ukrainian victory. But equally don't completely rule out a Russian collapse in 2023....nobody expected Russia 1917 or France 1940; a collapse is only unlikely till it eventually happens. Afterwards it will come to seem inevitable.